Panic, Trust and Interconnectedness
In fact, a few nights ago, Angel Island caught fire in the middle of San Francisco Bay. With my sister, I drove to the Marin Headlands to watch more than 700 acres burn. As we stared at this surreal volcano-like image in the midst of a sea of normality, I remembered how I felt following 9/11. As we watched those burning ashes, we had so much pent-up emotion following the bloody dot-com financial meltdown and plunged headlong into the uncertainty of recent years. We also, perhaps for the first time, used social software to bind to others: I remember not having cell reception in N.Y. but staying in touch with others via e-mails, blogs and IM.
A panic feedback loop
I believe what we’ve been watching is clearly panic, starting in our financial institutions (though triggered by consumers, who in losing their homes, also must have panicked). These institutions are notable for me in that they are little more than repositories of trust, which they accumulate, hold and invest in the form of investors and depositors’ money. As soon as the trust placed in them erodes, the funds quickly follow. So the opposite of panic is trust and the calm that results from knowing you are safe. These two states inform every relationship we have and every transaction we make, and they hold together our society and economy.
The unfortunate phenomena of panic that we’re witnessing right now are examples of a panic-amplifying feedback loops. I’ve recently described this as the societal equivalent of a person who is completely healthy but knows he or she will drop dead if their heart rate exceeds 160 beats per minute. This should be just fine; don’t run marathons and all will be well. Unless you start thinking about it. And your heart rate rises. Which worries you. And your heart rate rises …
Will we escape unscathed?
Unfortunately (or fortunately), panic and trust do not exist in a vacuum. Many people, myself included, may have thought at the beginning of this crisis that we might escape its wrath. My logic went like this:
1. We do great work and our clients are largely in the entertainment sector.
2. Virtual worlds present a cost-effective and comforting refuge in troubled times.
3. As companies cut costs, they will increasingly look to replace costly flights and hotels with virtual meetings.
The reality is that nobody will escape unscathed because we are all so fundamentally interconnected. The question we must ask ourselves and each other is, “How can I be a force of trust and stability in my dealings with others?” Ironic as it may seem, the market is simply a reflection of all of us and our collective health. Sometimes that reflection is distorted, but for the most part it’s accurate. Therefore, if we relax and focus, this too shall pass.
Agree? Disagree? Why?
October 16th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Well said. I must disagree though that head down, business as usual is the best answer for our children.
I encourage you to read Naomi Klein’s “The Shock Doctrine”.
October 16th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
The internet is the best demonstration I can currently think of of the fact that we are all connected … whether we know it or not, understand or know how to apply the details, etc.
If the secret to success is the multiplication of positive things, then we continue to be on our way to better and better and better.
Congratulations ! Now … get on with it !
October 20th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I disagree with the third part of your logic. In theory companies should work that way, but I have never seen one operate in such a manner. Secondly, enterprise virtual worlds are still unproven.
I still have hope for the virtual worlds industry, but it’s going to be a rough year.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:19 pm
Ryan — I’m definitely not saying heads down business as usual is the answer. I’m saying that nobody is immune to this and panic amplifies the situation. Thanks for the book recommendation — will check it out.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Justin –
I have a feeling about enterprise virtual worlds. Could be wildly wrong but it just seems too useful not to happen.
November 13th, 2008 at 12:18 am
I agree and disagree. I agree that we can get into negativity loops that collectively make us dumber and more unhappy and unproductive than we need to be. On the other hand the economy has been brought to a serious bender. It has been bulding a long time and is as much or more the fault of government (including the Fed) than the “greedy” “capitalists” taking much of the heat. But the point is that it is in a very serious state. So recognizing that and worrying about it a bit and doing what one can to stay safe is reasonable. When we go beyond that and ar simply to agitated we lose touch with our lives and become unable to respond reasonably.
It is also a LOT easier to get into the negative gossip and social angst of the thing instead of keeping ones eye on many positive developments and possibilities at this time in our history. It is hard to move against the general sociological trend and be a voice for the positive.
Dunno about virtual meetings. One would think that when oil went over $140 that all the teleworking and telecommuting companies would have boomed. You would think there would be a strong nationwide push for such. But no. I don’t understand why not.